[SMM Weekly Review] Ferrochrome Prices Remain Stable, Chrome Ore Lacks Driving Force for Price Increase

On July 3, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was also 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The quoted price for high-carbon ferrochrome from South Africa was 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), and from Kazakhstan, it was 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis. This week, the ferrochrome market operated smoothly, with TISCO's steel tender price slightly decreasing by 50 to 7,845 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The sentiment of a flat steel tender price has largely been absorbed, with current profit margins expanding. Coupled with the conclusion of environmental protection checks, it is estimated that ferrochrome production will increase significantly in July. However, downstream steel mills, constrained by the fundamental contradiction of supply-demand imbalance, have mostly implemented production cuts, affecting subsequent purchases of ferrochrome. Market supply and demand are gradually shifting towards a tight balance. On the cost side, the immediate smelting cost of ferrochrome remained stable during the week. However, considering the arrival of high-priced chrome ore from March, ferrochrome producers holding high-priced chrome ore are facing increased production cost pressure, leading to a rise in their reluctance to budge on prices. However, downstream purchase willingness remains low, and the pressure to drive down prices persists, resulting in limited actual transactions of ferrochrome during the week. It is expected that the ferrochrome market will operate steadily in the short term.

On the raw material side, chrome ore prices remained relatively stable during the week. Zimbabwean chrome ore prices rebounded from oversold levels, rising slightly, but purchase demand was limited, and market activity was generally average. On July 4, 2025, the spot price of 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port was 54-55 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was 49-51 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was 55.5-56.5 yuan/mtu; and 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis. On the futures front, the overseas market quoted price for 40-42% South African powder was $265-270/mt. Affected by pessimistic expectations before the steel tender was finalized, chrome ore traders rushed to sell at lower prices, increasing the supply of low-priced goods. The steel tender exceeded expectations with a flat price, leading to a slight increase in short-term purchase demand from ferrochrome producers and a slight exploration of price increases for chrome ore. Currently, traders mostly hold high-quality goods, with a strong mindset to refuse to budge on prices. Recently, South Africa's policies on chrome ore export controls and taxation have sparked close market attention. Currently in the discussion stage, specific implementation details have not yet been officially announced, and market participants in the chrome sector are mostly cautiously observing. It is expected that the chrome ore market will operate smoothly in the short term.